Both of the following polls — in VA05 and VA10 - are highly encouraging, both in and of themselves and also where the current political situation stands with just 20 days to go until The Most Important Election Of Our Lives.
First, check out the new poll of VA10, which is an “internal” by Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D)’s campaign, but by a highly respected polling outfit (Garin-Hart-Yang Research), so take with whatever grain(s) of salt you’d like, but it seems credible to me. This poll has Wexton up a whopping 22 (!) points in a classic, suburban/exurban “purple-district-shifting-blue” (Fairfax County, Loudoun County, etc.). Note that in 2018, Wexton defeated Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) by 12 points (56%-44%), so a 22-point lead (58%-36%) now would be a 10-point increase from that. Also note that Hillary Clinton won VA-10 by just 7 points over Trump in 2016, so Biden’s 21-point lead in this poll (58%-37%) is a 14-point increase from that. Finally, Clinton won Virginia by 5.3 points in 2016, so VA-10 was 2 points ahead of that. If that holds this time, then it implies that Virginia should go to Biden by…a LOT (19 points? hard to believe, but certainly double digits is possible) on 11/3. Stay tuned! Also, for more on Rep. Wexton’s Republican opponent, if you’re interested, see VA10 GOP Nominee Can’t Spell “Louden” (sic) County, But That’s the Least of Her Problems!; VIDEO – Fairfax County Democratic Committee Chair: “Republicans are straight-up attempting to intimidate voters…circling the parking lots with their Trump flags and horns blaring”; Video: Fairfax NAACP 2020 Candidates Forum (in which Andrews had a lot of, uh, “interesting” things to say! LOL); During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Virginia Dems Show How to Campaign Safely; Republicans…Not So Much...
Next, here’s a new poll of VA05, courtesy of 314 Action Fund. Note that this is a district which Trump won by 14 points (55%-41%) in 2016, and which far-right, neo-Confederate Corey Stewart narrowly (50%-48%) won over Sen. Tim Kaine in 2018, so if Democrats are winning in a district like THIS, it’s likely going to be a great election overall for the “blue team!” Also check out the fivethirtyeight.com ratings, below, which have Dr. Webb with a 59% chance of winning in their "classic" model and Dr. Webb with a 51% chance of winning in their "deluxe" model. Finally, for more info on Dr. Webb, who has turned out to be one of the most impressive Democratic candidates for Congress this cycle, see “The Root” Names Dr. Cameron Webb (D-VA05) as #21 on Its List of Most Influential African Americans in 2020; Dr. Cameron Webb Highlighting Kitchen-Table Agenda in Senior Statesmen Forum while Bob Good Deflects; Video: Racist New Bob Good (R-VA05) Ad “Superimposes a Photo of…Cameron Webb over video of fires and looting…tells voters to ‘look past [Webb’s] smooth presentation”; Compare and Contrast the Twitter Feeds of VA05 Dem Nominee Cameron Webb and His Far-Right Extremist Opponent, Bob Good (R); Crunching the Numbers: How VA-05 Democratic Nominee Cameron Webb Could Win the Election In an R+6 “PVI” District; etc.