5 years and 1 day ago my life changed. It was July 7, 2003, and I was getting back into politics after a long period where I followed it but wasn't really involved. A big part of the reason for my re-engagement was where I saw George W. Bush taking the country - off the cliff, in my opinion - after he had been "selected" by the Supreme Court as president in the hotly disputed 2000 election against Al Gore. Almost immediately, it became apparent that Bush would NOT keep his promises to govern as "compassionate conservative," a "reformer with results," etc. It became obvious that he would NOT run a "humble" foreign policy.  And it became depressingly clear that Bush would not "change the tone in Washington" for the better, only for the (far) worse.  

According to the CNN Political Market, Jim Webb now trails only "Other" in response to the question, "Who will Obama choose as his VP nominee?"  Right now, it's:

Dick Cheney has apologized for an inbreeding joke about West Virginia.  That's wonderful.  The problem is, how about all the things Cheney has NOT apologized for?  Like...

Gotta love the headline, gotta love this:

I just received the results of a new Virginia 2nd CD poll by Bennett, Petts & Normington.  The bottom line of it is that Rep. Thelma Drake is in big, big trouble.  Check out some of these findings:

*Drake has 95% name recognition, but only 40% would vote to re-elect her.  In short, almost all 2nd CD voters know Thelma Drake, yet they want to get rid of her. That's not what you want to hear when you're an incumbent, that's for sure.

I just received this from "Green Miles" Grant at the National Wildlife Federation:

UPDATE: I hear that Deputy Secretary of the Interior Lynn Scarlett will host a conference call TODAY at 3:45 pm to discuss Secretary Kempthorne's major announcement on the status of the polar bear. Looks like Kempthorne's deputy is doing his dirty work for him. Cowards.

Back in March 2005, when I was still working as an international oil markets analyst at the US Energy Information Administration (and  oil prices were about $50 per barrel), Goldman Sachs came out with its first "super spike" analysis.

UPDATE: My former colleagues at EIA are out with their latest short-term forecast.  As usual, they've got prices falling back slightly in coming years ("WTI crude oil prices, which averaged $72 per barrel in 2007, are projected to average $110 per barrel in 2008 and $103 per barrel in 2009."), mainly because of a tendency to believe that high oil prices will result in slowing demand and also a supply response.  We'll see, but honestly I've got to go more with Goldman Sachs on this one, as I see the supply curve as close to vertical and demand in places like China and India responding much more to income elasticity than price elasticity.

Finally, there's someone with a brain on gasoline prices.  No, it's certainly not John McCain or Hillary Clinton, both of whom have resorted to the most pitiful pandering imaginable (Clinton actually says she'll "sue OPEC for not producing oil from wells they haven’t drilled yet" - bwahahahahah!).  No, the voice of rationality doesn't come from a politician at all, but from a Hill staffer named Bill Wicker, spokesperson for the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.

The following is transcribed from Sen. McGovern's speech Saturday night at the McGovern Day dinner in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  Great work by Tyler at Badlands Blue for all the great videos!

I just received a fundraising email from John McCain which I would have thought came from "The Onion" if it didn't say "Paid for by John McCain 2008 and John McCain 2008 General Election Compliance Fund" at the bottom.  I mean, this guy can't possibly be serious, right?  First, he offers this heroic pledge:

Whether it's the economy, the struggle against radical Islamic extremism or national security issues, I stand ready to offer bold solutions to our nation's challenges.

Cross posted at Badlands Blue

The much awaited poll by Dakota Wesleyan University (jointly with the McGovern Center for Leadership and Public Service) is now available.  From this morning's Argus Leader:

Does this sound shady or what?  First, there's a Dominion Virginia Power/pollution angle (side note: is there anything bad in Virginia that Dominion is NOT involved with?!?):

Cross posted from Raising Kaine

This evening, DNC Chairman Howard Dean was on NPR discussing the Clinton-Obama contest.  Here are some highlights of the interview with Robert Siegel.

Siegel: Is it good for the party if Obama and Clinton spend the next several weeks attacking each other?  

Thanks to my good friend Stan Davis for the following report from yesterday's Colorado JJ Dinner festivities.

Sen. Jim Webb was the keynote speaker at Friday's statewide Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.  Earlier in the day, Webb and CD-2 (Boulder) Congressman and Senate candidate met with a group of veterans.

More on the "flip."

A new poll by the DSCC has Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) leading potential challenger Steve Kirby 70%-19%.  That's right, that's a 51-point lead.  As if that's not good enough, Sen. Johnson's net favorable rating is an amazing +67 (79%-12%). Is there any incumbent Democrat in the country with higher favorables than that?  In other words, god help any Republican thinking of challenging Tim Johnson this year.

Speaking of Republicans thinking of challenging Tim Johnson this year, check out the new DSCC site on Steve Kirby, known as the "single biggest jobs exporter in South Dakota history."  Also, enjoy the videos about Steve Kirby on the flip!

According to a brand new poll by SurveyUSA (which nailed the Virginia primary results, btw), Barack Obama beats John McCain in Virginia by 6 points, 51%-45%!  Obama wins every region of the state except for Shenandoah, with his biggest margin in northern Virginia (61%-38%).  In contrast, Hillary Clinton loses to John McCain in Virginia by 3 points, 48%-45%. Clinton loses every region of the state, except for northern Virginia, where she holds a 3-point margin (49%-46%).  

Which pollsters did the best and who did the worst on Tsunami Tuesday?  Let's go state by state in cases where there was significant polling (source is Real Clear Politics, a great resource by the way):

Alabama
Results: Obama +14
Nobody really came close here, but Insider Advantage and SurveyUSA each had it Obama +2 in their last polls.